The SP, one of two key parties that will untie the knot

There are two key parties in the upcoming elections. One of them is the HDP and the other the Felicity Party (SP).

The first will garner the votes of the Kurdish electorate under its party umbrella and, in surmounting the ten per cent electoral threshold, will play the leading role in the majority of seats in parliament passing into the hands of the opposition.

The second, that is the Felicity Party, will hold onto its share of the vote of up to 2.5% in previous normal elections, augmenting it further with some from the conservative but currently most troubled body of voters that has voted for the AKP. Taking it, for example, to four of five per cent.

Both parties’ attaining their goals is the AKP’s biggest nightmare.

And they hold the key to the election.

The SP has gained an important political identity

The Felicity Party has gained a party identity with Karamollaoğlu. Its “dance” with the AKP and its leader was successful, and this dance has created a serious option for pious, conservative voters who are fed up with and troubled by the ruling body’s corruption and exploitation of religion and who do not or do not wish to profit from the largesse, easy earnings and money distributed by the ruling body.

If Felicity gets five per cent of the vote, this will amount to a serious dissolution especially of the outer ring of the electoral body that votes for the AKP.

The case of the dissolving party

These elections may provide evidence that the AKP is a party that is condemned to dissolution. There may be visible pointers that it will remain on its feet as a party surrounding its chief.

The body of voters inclined towards Felicity will take its first exam in the presidential election. I imagine that this electoral body will not engage in the dual preference of stamping for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and for the SP in parliament, or that very few will.

But, all their votes will clearly congregate around the Felicity Party.

For, the SP will under all circumstances be represented in parliament and gain a political identity as an official option. The electorate will see and wish for this.

The six SP members on the CHP lists

The Nation Alliance has given the SP the chance to enter parliament.

Moreover, as dictated by the alliance, six SP parliamentary candidates have been placed on the CHP lists in places where they can be elected. This is the alliance’s horse trading over a “fair share-out” of the additional seats it will win them. These MPs will return to their parties after the elections. The SP will thereby most likely form a group in parliament.

Another of the Felicity Party’s targets is the conservative Kurdish electorate that votes for the AKP but is uncomfortable with the ruling body. The SP provides them with and constitutes an option.

For this reason, Karamollaoğlu frequently addresses Kurdish voters. He is striking at the AKP’s soft underbelly.

Conservative Kurdish voters were the most important body of support for the AKP first in the 1 November 2015 election held out of extraordinary circumstances and then in the referendum.

The AKP now attaches great importance to these votes.

The Supreme Election Council’s resolution to combine ballot boxes in the South East shows there is a wish to engage in serious machinations with these votes through state intervention and pressure. I will address this in my column tomorrow with reference to the HDP.

The ruling body’s corruption and ...

No floating votes are available to the AKP! Be it the choice of president or be it the choice of MPs, almost every vote has its leader and party. The AKP will consequently be reduced in this election to its own vote plus the votes that will come from the MHP for presidency.

So, it faces a Herculean task and, if you were of a greatly optimistic frame of mind, you would even say it was close to impossible for it to obtain both the presidency and the majority of seats in parliament.

If Felicity performs as expected and the HDP enters parliament, the ruling body’s fears will come true.

HDP voters and a little about the MHP tomorrow.

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/koseyazisi/984433/iki_kilit_parti__dugumu_cozecek__SP_nin_rolu.html