The key party HDP and the AKP’s soft underbelly

Yesterday, I stressed the importance of the role of one of the key parties in the election, the Felicity Party (SP). Especially if the vote fluctuates in the 48-52% range, the SP’s role as a focal point that will garner votes from the AKP becomes evident.

Undoubtedly, the HDP, whose chair is incarcerated in prison, has an importance all of its own in the elections. In the 1 November general elections there was a significant swing from the HDP to the AKP following the extraordinary “civil war-trench war” that we lived through. There was also a huge state-ruling party pressurisation on the Kurdish votes in the referendum vote and as many as 500,000 votes swung to “yes.”

The AKP’s soft underbelly

The votes of conservative Kurds, up to 30%, go to the AKP.

Will this percentage stay the same in the presidential election, or will as many as 500,000 votes this time swing from the AKP to the HDP and somewhat to the SP, depending on their predisposition?

The ruling body will keep up this pressure through state intervention, above all, of course, by means of the Supreme Election Council resolution. The “ballot box combination” resolution involving 144,000 voters especially at ballot boxes where the HDP polls heavily is a harbinger of this. With the state having established its rule throughout the region, this combining procedure is clearly aimed at cowing the HDP electorate. There is obviously great importance in transporting voters and ensuring the integrity of each and every ballot box above all in these areas.

Need to surmount the threshold

The HDP surmounting the merciless and unconscionable ten per cent threshold holds great importance in terms of it gaining seats and representation in parliament and the opposition obtaining the majority in parliament.

As to the presidential election, it is natural for the HDP electorate to vote for Demirtaş who is suffering victimhood.

Another point is that a significant portion of the conservative Kurdish electorate who would vote for the AKP are expected to vote for the HDP, not the “People’s Alliance,” to enable the HDP to surmount the threshold and enter parliament. If the AKP loses its parliamentary majority, these voters will be one of the reasons.

There is a natural expectation that the HDP will support the Nation Alliance in the second round.

The tension between the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance must be expected to continue as before in the second round. Will there be a swing from the Nation Alliance to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the second round? There is a good chance that the ruling party will be frustrated in this expectation.

For, if the elections go to a second round, the prospect of transporting the Nation Alliance into power as a coalition will beckon. With its Good Party, Felicity and CHP components and even the Kurdish one. Muharrem İnce is waging a successful campaign. He has more than proved himself to be in his element on the stump.

The results of these elections will also set Devlet Bahçeli’s fate in the party. Will the expected vote emerge from the MHP for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s presidency? The forecast is in the region of 5%.

What will be the MHP’s vote?

The AKP-MHP arranged the electoral system in their favour but there is a possibility that it will create results detrimental to the AKP-MHP.

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I must make space for the following letter, because the citizen is at a loss as to what to do. Perhaps there should be a joint centre that will point the way for such applications and create solutions?

“I read your article about bogus voters in Bakırköy. I am an electrical engineer and live in an eight-block complex with 72 flats in Sarıyer. I looked at the e-state voters roll and my daughter and I are on it. But, there are eight voters who do not live in our eight-flat block but are registered. Our administrator said these people do not live in our complex. I informed the CHP Provincial Directorate. They said they would speak to Sarıyer. Engin and Buket called from Sarıyer sub-province and I informed them. I directed them towards the administrator and a visit was made to the headperson’s office with a list of the complex residents. The headperson said that these were real voters but they lived in another road and corrected it, saying there had been an error. On accessing e-state, my daughter and I are present as voters but the people in the other seven flats in the building are not visible. I have been unable to get through to Halk TV’s programme makers. I called CHP Ankara and Mehmet Ali Çelebi was not there nor his secretary, and there was no reply from public relations. In the end, they talk about the stamp at the ballot box, don’t they? Rubbish. The surplus printed ballot slips and stamps are in the AKP’s hands. The votes will be cast externally and will go into the ballot boxes, and the blank votes will be put in pockets. There is no irregularity with the votes in terms of number in the ballot box area and there are no unstamped votes. The ballot box force and the involved parties will have protected the AKP’s votes at the ballot box. If they do this at a building where there are CHP supporters, I dread to think what is happening to the votes in peripheral sub-provinces. They learnt the lesson in the referendum and this time will take the election with stamped votes. If the percentage is 70-30, that’s one thing, but if it is around 50 it will take some getting over.”

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/koseyazisi/985153/Kilit_parti_HDP_ve_AKP_nin_yumusak_karni.html