ASLI AYDINTAŞBAŞ

Let us first concede that all these efforts revolve around the Republican People’s Party

Headquarters. That is where the main control panel is of the alliance system that is to be
newly created.

I greatly criticised CHP Headquarters in the past for the “immunity” decision that enabled
many elected politicians such as Enis Berberoğlu and Selahattin Demirtaş to be sent to jail.
But, the CHP has atoned for this error.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who by dint of great effort is positioned as “game maker” thanks to a
series of open and secret meetings, is focused on “winning” and not on the voice coming
from the party tribunes. He is mooting such figures as Abdullah Gül, İlhan Kesici and
Muharrem İnce and all scenarios entailing different ideological significances such as alliance
with the Felicity or Good Party.

CHP people, especially a group that at most numbers twenty to thirty thousand that speaks
very loudly on social media, do not understand the logic of the feat Mr Kılıçdaroğlu is trying
to pull off. They act under the delusion that there is still a “parliamentary system” or that the
majority of Turkey consists of CHP voters. I am sorry to say this, but they do not fully
understand the profile of the 56 million voters. They want there to be a left candidate, for this
person to be from the CHP and to have the Six Arrows branded on their forehead, etc.
Conversely, CHP Headquarters sees that what will be decisive in this election will be the
Kurdish votes and the “urban conservatives” who are moving away from the AKP but lack an
address to go to. Mathematically, a candidate from within the CHP and having a strong CHP
identity will take 25 per cent in the first round, but will not muster 51 per cent in the second
round. So, even while coming up with a name for the first round, the CHP is searching for a
“joint candidate” who will get a portion of the Kurds’ and conservatives’ votes in the second
round.

Like it or not, the new electoral systemis taking Turkey in the direction of a two-party

system and alliance in both the parliamentary elections and the presidential elections is a
must.
The CHP’s game here is not “graceful defeat,” but to win! There is a sixty to sixty-five per
cent conservative-nationalist electorate in Turkey. Most of these are prejudiced against the
CHP brand. They want democracy and freedom and they want economic well-being; indeed,
they do not really want either journalists or Ayşe teacher along with her baby to be sent to
prison. However, thinking their own living space to be under threat, they are more warmly
disposed towards a conservative identity or one that, while not inherently conservative, is
conservative-friendly.

This is the reason CHP headquarters has until now seriously considered options like Abdullah
Gül. The CHP wants to change the dark direction Turkey is headed in, not satisfy you
Cumhuriyet readers or its own organisation. A “joint candidate,” on the other hand, can get
votes from disgruntled MHP people, the CHP, the (HDP and AKP-voting) Kurdish electorate
verging on eighteen per cent and Felicity.

In all polls and simulations, the name that can defeat Tayyip Erdoğan in the second round
appears by a wide margin to be Abdullah Gül. This is why Mr Kılıçdaroğlu is taxing his brain
over the Gül affair. The truth is that none of the other mooted names can win because they
cannot get the Kurdish vote in the second round or appear repellent to conservatives.
However, the Gül possibility is no longer on the table. It is known that Gül is only prepared
to stand if a joint candidate. However, the Good Party is not willing to display the sacrifice
that the CHP has and insists on saying, “Mrs Akşener is the one.” Akşener’s emergence has
put paid to the Gül scenario.

However, Mrs Akşener appears in various polls until now to be in the 7-11 per cent band. If
she allies with Felicity, no threshold problem remains. However, in either case, she has no
chance of getting the Kurdish votes in the second round. She makes massive claims but there
are no figures to back this up. There is no mathematical support for them in the eyes of those
who know politics.

Under such circumstances, the CHP will go in the direction of its own candidate. This is a
tough decision. Apart from Gül, the mooted names have a slim chance in the second round.
Let us nevertheless see who emerges.

Of course, whoever emerges, the truth is that the way things stacked up yesterday came as a
great comfort for Tayyip Erdoğan. His job is now easier.

ASLI AYDINTAŞBAŞ YAZDI: CHP'NİN ZOR KARARI