Plan to split Felicity using Erbakan

The AKP is not abandoning its overtures towards the Felicity Party (SP) despite the serial rejections it has received in reply. If it continues to stand up against the AKP-MHP alliance, there is talk in the AKP of attempts to split the SP and of formulae for including Necmettin Erbakan’s son Fatih Erbakan, who stands aloof from the SP, in the alliance.

 The 51.5 per cent vote that “yes” mustered in the referendum, despite the combined share of the vote with the MHP standing at more than 60 per cent, is impelling the AKP to take measures of all kinds to stop its worst dreams from coming true in the elections. The AKP consequently sees no guarantee of 50 per cent plus one in spite of the alliance it has formed with the MHP. The MHP’s name will appear on ballot slips and it will include the BBP in the alliance with the latter fielding candidates on its own lists, but the AKP does not regard this as sufficient.

 In spite of SP leader Temel Karamollaoğlu’s rejections, the AKP has not given up on its plan to bring the SP into the alliance with it fielding candidates on its own lists.

 The SP’s function

 There is no end of debate as to why the AKP is persisting so much over this party when the SP got less than one per cent of the vote in the 1 November elections. However, what makes wooing the SP so important for the AKP is not its share of the vote but its political function. It is National View’s party, and it is thus felt that President and AKP General Chair Tayyip Erdoğan will be unable to pull of the “national and local front” campaign he is going to wage in the elections without the SP. Views are also voiced that this is a way of preventing 11th president Abdullah Gül’s candidacy.

 “For the unity of the community of believers”

 In the talks he held with Karamollaoğlu, Erdoğan declared, “We must be together for the unity of the community of believers and the nation. We are considering a more meaningful togetherness with you.” These remarks, too, are felt to indicate how critically placed the SP is for the AKP. This is why the AKP administration has not shelved its plans relating to the SP. Faced with Karamollaoğlu and the SP administration’s clear stance, people within the AKP are seeking out ties that can be formed with various tendencies in the SP. There is talk in the political corridors of unofficial negotiations being held between AKP people and certain circles within the SP. Included among formulae the AKP is mooting are efforts to develop an opposition movement to the party administration in the SP.

 The Fatih Erbakan card

 Necmettin Erbakan’s son Fatih Erbakan is also being spoken of among the AKP crowd. Fatih Erbakan has for some time conducted activities within the Necmettin Erbakan Foundation that he created and remained aloof from the SP administration. Consequently, if the SP administration’s resistance cannot be broken in the run up to the elections, there is talk of the possibility of the AKP fielding Fatih Erbakan along with certain figures aligned to him and including them in the alliance. It is said that the message that will be sent out using the Erbakan surname may enable the negativity ensuing from the non-participation of the SP to be erased.

 Kılıçdaroğlu: Early election depends on the polls

 Even if Erdoğan and the AKP administration proclaim in unison that there will be no early election, increasing strains in the economy and the ending of the Afrin operation have brought early elections back onto the agenda. Analyses are thus being made in Ankara premised on the 2019 elections being brought forward. CHP General Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has also assessed these developments along with his staff. From what has been learnt, Kılıçdaroğlu’s views on an early election are as follow:

 “Discussions over early elections are closely related to developments in the economy. But, from the AKP’s standpoint, the timing of the elections will be dependent on what the polls say and not the economy or the country’s problems. They are paying very close attention to the polls. But, come what may, they are unable to see fifty per cent plus one. They were expecting votes from the Afrin operation. But this did not give them the electoral support they were hoping for, either. So, at this stage, they cannot embark on an early election. If they see fifty per cent plus one in the polls they will not delay for a minute and will decide on an early election. But they cannot do so. Regardless of whether they hold an early election or an election on time, they will no longer be able to stay in power. Just as in the referendum, we the democracy block will end their rule and get them out.”

 http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/siyaset/948528/Saadet_i_Erbakan_la_bolme_plani.html