French geophysicist to expect single quake of more than magnitude 7.6 in Marmara

There was no way to predict the second earthquake that took place on Feb. 6 in Türkiye, according to an eminent French seismologist and geophysicist, referring to the two major quakes early this month.

Xavier Le Pichon, 85, a professor emeritus at Paris’ College de France, told news channel Haberturk that due to its geological traits, Türkiye is a country that needs to be prepared for many quakes.

He stressed that Türkiye has two big fault lines to its north and east.

The first quake at around 4 a.m. on Feb, 6, with magnitude 7.7 on the East Anatolian fault line, caused Anatolia to move west 4 meters (13 feet), and this means a drift of 6 millimeters (one-quarter inch) per year on average, he explained.

"This means that we need 500 years to gather the energy for a four-meter move," said Le Pichon.

Referring to Pazarcik in the province of Kahramanmaras, where the first quake had its epicenter, he explained: "An earthquake jolted Pazarcik in 1513. So we can say that … the quake that could have occurred happened 500 years later. This was expected."

But Le Pichon underlined that the second quake was entirely different, and provoked a move of 10 meters (nearly 34 feet).

"This fault line gathered energy very slowly, and apparently, the stress from the first quake provoked the second one," he continued. "The second quake was completely unpredictable. It was impossible to predict a second quake there. This is impossible."

But Le Pichon said he believes people living on the East Anatolian fault line can rest easy about more quakes in the near term.

"Even if small tremors occur, you are safe for centuries now. But we must not forget, though we do. We repeat history and build houses in the same area," he said.

Possible quake in Istanbul

Le Pichon, who has studied the Marmara fault line in northwestern Türkiye extensively, said that Istanbul is close to this important fault line, and its various regions will be differently impacted by a quake.

He stressed that buildings must be built according to seismic rules and regulations.

"I expect a single quake of more than magnitude 7.6 in Marmara," he said, adding that some of his colleagues expect two or three quakes.

Feb. 6 quakes

The magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 tremors on Feb. 6 were centered in Kahramanmaras and rocked 10 other provinces – Hatay, Gaziantep, Adiyaman, Malatya, Adana, Diyarbakir, Kilis, Osmaniye, Elazig, and Sanliurfa. More than 13 million people have been affected by the devastating quakes.

Several countries in the region, including Syria and Lebanon, also felt the trembles that struck in less than 10 hours.

More than 41,000 people were killed by the back-to-back quakes in Türkiye, according to the latest official figures. Thousands of others were injured.