Monstrosity in the works

The constitutional amendment agreed to by the AKP and MHP to ‘solve the crisis in the system’, which, even if it bears the name ‘Presidential’, is essentially a headship system designed around President Tayyip Erdoğan, will, just like the 2007 constitutional amendment that introduced the popular election of the president, bring with it new de facto situations and complex problems. The AKP responded to the ‘367 crisis’ that hampered the election of the president in 2007 with the clamour, ‘Let the people elect the president,’ turned a deaf ear to the opposition’s warnings of crisis emerging from conflict between a popularly elected president and the prime-minister and the system grinding to a halt, and proceeded to amend the constitution. Following Tayyip Erdoğan’s initial popular election as president, constant friction was experienced between him and former Prime-Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and the debacle ended with Davutoğlu’s resignation. The country will witness a number of ‘firsts’ under the presidential system introduced for Erdoğan’s benefit that will enable the president to maintain his ties to his party and to be general chair. The following are some of the potential outcomes that are on commentators’ lips:
A president who is also the ruling party’s general chair: The constitutional amendment envisages the conducting of the presidential election and the election of MPs on the same day through two ballot boxes. If the party of which the president is general chair attains the majority in parliament, no difficulties will arise over the enacting of legislation and between the legislature and executive. Under such a scenario, the ruling party’s general chair will be able to participate in the party’s group meetings and camps as both general chair and president. The policies created within the party will be implemented through the cabinet to be set up by the president.
A president who is also an opposition party’s general chair: The people may see fit to cast their ballots differently in the presidential and parliamentary elections and may not give the elected president’s party sufficient votes to give it a majority in parliament, with the result that the party will be in opposition. Such circumstances will lead to a scenario whereby the president is an opposition party’s general chair. Since the president’s party will be in opposition, the possibility will arise, even if a cabinet is formed, of legislation, international treaties and the budget failing to pass through parliament. If the MHP consents to the mutual annulment mechanism, the president will be able to call an election if he does not gain enough MPs to form a government.
The electoral system will stifle pluralism in parliament: Following the constitutional amendment, the AKP also wants to change the electoral system to bring it into line with the new system. In the face of the MHP’s objection to the constituency system, the most favoured alternative is a ‘semi-constituency system’. One option under this system is for the current ten per cent threshold to be reduced to as low as five percent. But such a system will result in opposition parties gaining fewer MPs to the benefit of the ruling party. It is estimated that under the proposed amendment to the electoral system, two and at most three parties will be able to enter parliament.
Problems for leaders over whether to stand: The new system will not permit presidential candidates to stand for parliament at the same time. This situation may make leaders of political parties unwilling to stand for president given the risk of defeat and, should they stand, could lead to chaos in their own party if they fail to be elected.
Extraordinary congress for Erdoğan
If the constitutional amendment is submitted to a referendum and wins the day, with the new system awaiting adoption in 2019, there is speculation that President Erdoğan will be unable to wait until the 2019 elections to become party general chair. It is said that Erdoğan may convene an extraordinary congress in the immediate wake of the referendum to bestow general chairship of the party on him. If Erdoğan is elected general chair, with him not being an MP, Prime-Minister Binali Yıldırım will be able to continue in his post as group chair and prime-minister until 2019. There are also those who speculate that Erdoğan will place general chairship on hold until 2019 to avoid inconveniencing MHP General Chair Devlet Bahçeli, should the perception arise within the latter’s party that he gifted general chairship to Erdoğan.