By daisy petals: Will ‘No’ or ‘Yes’ prevail?

I have assembled a brief anthology of the questions that have arrived by email, text and phone since yesterday morning until this time (3.10 pm) at which I find myself in front of the keyboard working on the column.

Here we go:
- Aydın, mate, it looks like it’s going to be ‘No’, but do you think there will be a margin that will shut their mouths?
- Professor, will ‘Yes’ prevail or ‘No’?
- What do you think will win? Yes? No?
- Mr Aydın Engin, the shanty towns will swing it. I think that ‘No’ is in the 65-70 range in the centre of cities. But, we know nothing about the shanty towns. What do you say?
- Mate, it’s gonna be ‘No’, innit? That’s for sure, innit?
- Which of the comments from the polling companies can we trust? Or, which ones shouldn’t we trust?
- Mr Engin, you’re a journalist and you know – what is the advance knowledge you have about the referendum result?
Let us call a halt, shall we? That is more than enough.
I will reply en masse in this Claw Mark to the questions I have quoted and similar ones I have been unable to quote:
- I do not know and I do not imagine anybody does.

***
Just as I do not know, I am at least as curious as you are and would love to know in advance.
I had a lengthy chat with a pollster whose judgment, professional knowledge and skill at analysing figures I trust.

Grab hold of a few crumbs of information:
One: At every election, there is a serious fall in the number of the undecided with five or six days to go before the poll. So, most of the voters who had been undecided in past weeks would finally have come to a decision. However, this time, things are different. The number of undecided is much greater that we are accustomed to.

Two: The canvassers sent out into the field to conduct face to face questionnaires get replies from half of the people they ask. However, this time they are managing to get answers from one person in three or, in certain regions, one person in four. Those who do not reply either snarl at the canvasser or fob them off. This is not what they are accustomed to. It can be presumed that those who do not reveal their voting intention will actually vote ‘No’ but do not wish to say so for fear of the ruling party and its entourage. But this presumption lacks any scientific underpinning that can be taken seriously.

Three: Even if there are small differences between the polls, all of the auguries point to a situation that fits the descriptions ‘by a hair’s breadth’ or ‘on a knife edge.’

Four: In small settlements like villages and small municipalities, all the more so in regions where Kurdish voters are concentrated, the issue is not over the preference between ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, but whether or not to vote. Also, concerns that if a straight ‘No’ emerges from a village it will be collectively punished weigh heavily.

Well, even these crumbs of information show that it is a pretty tall order to expect me to be able to predict the referendum result in advance with any degree of accuracy.
Yes, the AKP wing is backing up its campaign with data that is very far from convincing. Rather than calling for a ‘Yes’ vote, more stress is placed on bearing down on and shouting and yelling at the CHP and HDP.

In spite of this, a strong ‘No’ wave is rising up.
But, do not forget, a sneaky ‘Yes’ wave is also on the move.
***
A man goes to the barber, settles down in the seat and asks:
- Master barber, how about you tell me - Is my hair white or black?
The barber shrugs and says:
- It’s going to fall down in front of you in a moment. Then you’ll see if it’s white or black.
Be patient. A mere four days remain. The vote is on the fifth day.
We will see if it is white or black.
But, if you really want to find out from me, you can trust me: I can tell you the certain results in the Cumhuriyet you pick up on the morning of 17 April.

I promise!

 

AYDIN ENGİN